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Inaccurate representations of iceberg calving from ice shelves are a large source of uncertainty in mass-loss projections from the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, we address this limitation by implementing and testing a continuum damage-mechanics model in a continental scale ice-sheet model. The damage-mechanics formulation, based on a linear stability analysis and subsequent long-wavelength approximation of crevasses that evolve in a viscous medium, links damage evolution to climate forcing and the large-scale stresses within an ice shelf. We incorporate this model into the BISICLES ice-sheet model and test it by applying it to idealized (1) ice tongues, for which we present analytical solutions and (2) buttressed ice-shelf geometries. Our simulations show that the model reproduces the large disparity in lengths of ice shelves with geometries and melt rates broadly similar to those of four Antarctic ice shelves: Erebus Glacier Tongue (length ~ 13 km), the unembayed portion of Drygalski Ice Tongue (~ 65 km), the Amery Ice Shelf (~ 350 km) and the Ross Ice Shelf (~ 500 km). These results demonstrate that our simple continuum model holds promise for constraining realistic ice-shelf extents in large-scale ice-sheet models in a computationally tractable manner. 

Academic achievement in the first year of college is critical for setting students on a pathway toward long-term academic and life success, yet little is known about the factors that shape early college academic achievement. Given the important role sleep plays in learning and memory, here we extend this work to evaluate whether nightly sleep duration predicts change in end-of-semester grade point average (GPA). First-year college students from three independent universities provided sleep actigraphy for a month early in their winter/spring academic term across five studies. Findings showed that greater early-term total nightly sleep duration predicted higher end-of-term GPA, an effect that persisted even after controlling for previous-term GPA and daytime sleep. Specifically, every additional hour of average nightly sleep duration early in the semester was associated with an 0.07 increase in end-of-term GPA. Sensitivity analyses using sleep thresholds also indicated that sleeping less than 6 h each night was a period where sleep shifted from helpful to harmful for end-of-term GPA, relative to previous-term GPA. Notably, predictive relationships with GPA were specific to total nightly sleep duration, and not other markers of sleep, such as the midpoint of a student’s nightly sleep window or bedtime timing variability. These findings across five studies establish nightly sleep duration as an important factor in academic success and highlight the potential value of testing early academic term total sleep time interventions during the formative first year of college. 

Feeling a sense of belonging is a central human motivation that has consequences for mental health and well-being, yet surprisingly little research has examined how belonging shapes mental health among young adults. In three data sets from two universities (exploratory study: N = 157; Confirmatory Study 1: N = 121; Confirmatory Study 2: n = 188 in winter term, n = 172 in spring term), we found that lower levels of daily-assessed feelings of belonging early and across the academic term predicted higher depressive symptoms at the end of the term. Furthermore, these relationships held when models controlled for baseline depressive symptoms, sense of social fit, and other social factors (loneliness and frequency of social interactions). These results highlight the relationship between feelings of belonging and depressive symptoms over and above other social factors. This work underscores the importance of daily-assessed feelings of belonging in predicting subsequent depressive symptoms and has implications for early detection and mental health interventions among young adults. 

The Southern Ocean overturning circulation is driven by winds, heat fluxes, and freshwater sources. Among these sources of freshwater, Antarctic sea-ice formation and melting play the dominant role. Even though ice-shelf melt is relatively small in magnitude, it is located close to regions of convection, where it may influence dense water formation. Here, we explore the impacts of ice-shelf melting on Southern Ocean water mass transformation (WMT) using simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) both with and without the explicit representation of melt fluxes from beneath Antarctic ice shelves. We find that ice-shelf melting enhances transformation of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), converting it to lower density values. While the overall differences in Southern Ocean WMT between the two simulations are moderate, freshwater fluxes produced by ice-shelf melting have a further, indirect impact on the Southern Ocean overturning circulation through their interaction with sea-ice formation and melting, which also cause considerable upwelling. We further find that surface freshening and cooling by ice-shelf melting causes increased Antarctic sea-ice production and stronger density stratification near the Antarctic coast. In addition, ice-shelf melting causes decreasing air temperature, which may be directly related to sea-ice expansion. The increased stratification reduces vertical heat transport from the deeper ocean. Although the addition of ice-shelf melting processes leads to no significant changes in Southern Ocean WMT, the simulations and analysis conducted here point to a relationship between increased Antarctic ice-shelf melting and the increased role of sea ice in Southern Ocean overturning. 

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution inresponse to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute tofuture sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future massbalance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physicalprocesses, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presentsresults from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolutionof the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet ModelIntercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climatemodel results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in responseto increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent(SLE) under Representative ConcentrationPathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment withconstant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution underclimate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of theWest Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighingthe increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelfcollapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface ofice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without iceshelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, thecalibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavitiesand the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario basedon two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared tosimulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and displaylimited mass gain in East Antarctica. 

Abstract Recent observations of increased discharge through fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams motivate questions concerning the inland migration of regions of fast flow, which could increase drawdown of the ice-sheet interior. To investigate one process that could lead to inland migration we conduct experiments with a two-dimensional, full-stress, transient ice-flow model. An initial steady state is perturbed by initiating a jump in sliding speed over a fraction of the model domain. As a result, longitudinal-stress gradients increase frictional melting upstream from the slow-to-fast sliding transition, and a positive feedback between longitudinal-stress gradients, basal meltwater production and basal sliding causes the sliding transition to migrate upstream over time. The distance and speed of migration depend on the magnitude of the perturbation and on the degree of non-linearity assumed in the link between basal stress and basal sliding: larger perturbations and/or higher degrees of non-linearity lead to farther and faster upstream migration. Migration of the sliding transition causes the ice sheet to thin over time and this change in geometry limits the effects of the positive feedback, ultimately serving to impede continued upstream migration.